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| The Third Depression
© A. Scott Piraino
The US economy as we know it will soon collapse. This has happened before, twice,
and history is about to repeat itself again. This will be the third
depression the United States has suffered, and it will probably be the
worst.
In the Gilded Age of the 1890’s, and the Roaring 1920’s,
improvements in technology and industry fueled rapid economic
expansions. Capitalism was revered as the new engine of progress, while
onerous government regulations were seen as an impediment to growth.
These were days of “laissez faire” economics and unscrupulous robber
barons.
Inevitably there was a growing
disparity in incomes, but the majority of Americans were more concerned
with getting rich than helping the poor. Most investors believed these
economic booms would last forever, but this optimism proved to be their
undoing as exuberance bid up share prices. Inevitably the day came when
prices fell, and our markets collapsed.
The Gilded Age ended
with a monetary crisis in the first decade of the twentieth century.
Incoming President Teddy Roosevelt was forced to borrow money from
wealthy elites to finance the government. The Roaring Twenties ended in
a more spectacular fashion, a stock market crash in 1929 ushered in the
Great Depression.
Depressions are created when money disappears.
People suddenly become poorer, and they spend less money. With less
demand for goods and services, production declines and prices fall,
causing a downward spiral of unemployment and falling incomes.
Our
country has endured deflationary periods after numerous boom and bust
cycles, most notably during the Great Depression. But the coming
collapse will be different. Debt, and our dependence on imported oil
and manufactured goods are the reasons the Third Depression will be
different, and much worse.
The U.S. budget deficit climbed to a
record high $412 billion last year, which was surpassed by our trade
deficit of $496 billion, also a new record. This year’s deficits will
be even larger. The Bush administration has projected a budget deficit
of $390 billion for the year, not including $80 billion for
the war in Iraq. Meanwhile our trade deficit is growing even faster, at
an annual rate of $592 billion.
To finance our current account
deficit, we have to import three billion dollars in cash, every working
day. Our deficits now consume 80 percent of the entire world’s net savings, and our demand for debt is increasing. This is unsustainable.
Interest
rates on our national debt are low only because bondholders are
confident in our ability to make payments. The US dollar maintains its
value on world markets because foreign nations believe we can afford
our appetite for imported goods. As our economy falters and our
deficits rise, the world is losing faith in our ability to finance our
deficits.
This is why world markets are beginning to reject the
US dollar. The dollar has lost about one third of its value against
other major currencies since 2002, and has been falling at a much
faster rate in recent months. The danger of course is that as the
dollar declines in value, it becomes less profitable to hold, and the
incentive to sell dollars increases.
If enough central banks
and foreign investors began unloading US assets, other investors and
financial institutions would see the dollar rapidly losing value. They
would have to sell their US securities quickly, to protect themselves
from further losses on their dollar denominated holdings. There would
be a financial panic, and the US dollar would collapse.
This
danger is very real, and our declining dollar is creating a vicious
cycle which will inevitably cause our currency to depreciate more. As
our dollar loses value, foreign goods purchased with dollars become
more expensive. Since we are now dependent on imported goods, (see the
trade deficit figures above), our shrinking dollar means higher prices
for those goods.
In addition to the inflation caused by rising
prices for imported wares, we have to worry about oil. The price of oil
is skyrocketing even faster than the value of our dollar is falling,
rising 30% in the last three months alone. As of this writing the price
of oil has reached 50 dollars a barrel, and gasoline prices nationally
are at a record high $2.11 at the pump.
These market forces are
putting immense pressure on our economy. Higher costs for energy and
transportation have been driving up prices at a 3% annual rate. Last
month the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6 %, the largest increase in
four years, even when rising prices for food and energy are excluded.
While
inflation is gaining momentum, recent economic reports and corporate
earning statements show an economy rapidly losing steam. General Motors
reported a net loss of over one billion dollars in their most recent
quarter. U.S. durable goods orders plummeted by 2.8 percent in March,
while new housing starts plunged 17.6 percent, marking their steepest
drop in more than 14 years.
Even more telling is a report
prepared by the Economic Policy Institute on April 21st. The report
shows that wages and salaries as a share of national income fell to
their lowest levels on record, even lower than the Great Depression of
1929. Although corporate profits are at all time highs, wages, (which
represent total income for 80% of Americans), have not kept pace with
inflation.
The US economy may be expanding as government
statistics claim, but the majority of Americans are actually getting
poorer. US household debt now stands at $10 trillion, ( a record high,
of course), and has been increasing by over one trillion dollars per
year since 2002. Americans cannot spend enough money to lift the
economy out of the doldrums, nor can they afford higher prices, or
higher interest rates.
The trembling dollar, inflation jitters,
and pessimistic economic data sent all three US stock indexes to their
lows for the year in April. The Dow Jones declined by 3 percent, the
tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped by 4 percent, while the S&P 500 lost 2
percent. The market is waiting for the other shoe to drop, and in April
the warnings became more shrill.
In testimony before Congress two weeks ago, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that “these deficits would cause the economy to stagnate or worse“.
He’s
right, and he knows our economic problems are even worse than our
deficits, a declining dollar, and inflation. Derivatives are financial
holdings that derive their value from other securities. These
new financial instruments have created a speculative bubble unlike
anything ever seen, and pose a mortal danger to our economy.
In a letter to shareholders, billionaire investor Warren Buffet warned that derivatives were “time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system“. He went on to explain how derivatives work, and why they are so dangerous:
“Essentially,
these instruments call for money to change hands at some future date,
with the amount to be determined by one or more reference items, such
as interest rates, stock prices or currency values. If, for example,
you are either long or short an S&P 500 futures contract, you are a
party to a very simple derivatives transaction -with your gain or loss
derived from movements in the index.”
“Unless
derivatives contracts are collateralized or guaranteed, their ultimate
value also depends on the creditworthiness of the counterparties (sic)
to them. In the meantime, though, before a contract is settled, the
counterparties record profits and losses -often huge in amount- in
their current earnings statements without so much as a penny changing
hands.”
In 1986, the global market for derivatives stood
at just over one trillion dollars. By 2004, The U.S. Comptroller of the
Currency estimated the value of derivatives held by U.S. commercial
banks at around $84 trillion. That’s eight times the size of the US economy.
Derivatives
are now one of the pillars of our financial system. Fannie Mae, a
federally subsidized home-mortgage corporation, has recently admitted
to $8.4 billion dollars in losses stemming from derivatives. JP Morgan
Chase has $43 trillion in derivatives contracts, by far the largest
portfolio of any commercial bank.
The implosion of one of our
banks or lending agencies due to losses on derivatives would cause a
panic, and wipe out the US economy. And the fact is, many of our
financial institutions are only solvent as long as their derivative
holdings are profitable. This situation is now very dangerous because 87% of derivative positions consist of interest rate contracts.
Alan Greenspan is trapped, and he knows it. The Federal Reserve must
raise interest rates to improve the rate of return on dollar
investments, and keep foreign investors from abandoning the US
currency. But higher interest rates will slow down the already moribund
US economy, and create immense losses on derivative contracts.
Monetary
policy cannot save us from an impending financial reckoning caused by
our soaring levels of debt and speculation. The only people who can get
us out of our economic difficulties are the very people who have put us
in this mess. Yet the Bush administration appears to be blithely
marching the United States over the brink of an economic abyss.
After the economic crises following the Gilded Age and Roaring
Twenties, there was a backlash against the excesses of capitalism.
Teddy Roosevelt reined in monopolies, and passed the first income tax
into law. During the Great Depression, Franklin D. Roosevelt raised
taxes on the wealthy to finance his New Deal legislation.
Unfortunately, we don’t have a Roosevelt in office to champion the
majority against business interests. President Bush has repeatedly cut
taxes for our wealthiest citizens, and signed more free trade
agreements, while our deficits have soared. He and his cronies have
offered nothing but the same warmed over Reaganomics that created our
trade and budget deficits in the first place.
If the US Government does not take drastic action immediately to reduce our deficits and increase investment in the US economy, one or more of the following scenarios will take place:
1)
The dollar’s value will depreciate until enough investors and foreign
central banks decide to unload our currency, causing a financial panic.
2) Higher interest rates will cause multi-billion dollar losses in
derivatives trading, and when a financial institution admits to the
scale of those losses, there will be a financial panic.
3) Too
many Americans foreclose on variable-rate mortgages and credit card
debts, causing a default in a bank or lending agency, and a financial
panic.
4) Fearing any of the above eventualities, US and global
stock markets melt down as investors liquidate their holdings, causing
a financial panic.
Either way, the house of cards that
Reaganomics built will soon collapse. We have a right to be angry about
the economic catastrophe we are about to experience, but we have no right
to be surprised. This is the Third Depression after all.
…
| | |
| The Original Thanksgiving
© A. Scott Piraino
When most Americans think of the origins of Thanksgiving, images of
Pilgrims, the Mayflower, and feasts with Indians come to mind. That is
not true. The Thanksgiving holiday we celebrate today originated in
1864, the bloodiest year in US history.
The Civil War had been raging for nearly four years. Over half a
million soldiers were dead in what was by far the biggest war on earth
up to that time. In 1864, the American people had to choose whether to
end the war and dissolve the United States, or continue the carnage and
hope for victory.
The Army of the Potomac had borne the brunt of the fighting, and had
usually lost to the dashing Robert E. Lee. Bull run, The Peninsula
Campaign, Fredericksburg, and Chancellorsville had been debacles for
the Union Army. Only Antietam and Gettysburg could be called victories,
and these battles were won because the Union held their ground, not by
outmaneuvering the wily Confederates.
In the summer of 1864 command of all Union Armies passed to Ulysses
S. Grant. His grim strategy was to engage the Confederate armies in a
relentless war of attrition. To that end, the Union Army under Grant
fought a series of battles in Virginia. The Army of the Potomac
suffered 66,000 thousand casualties in six weeks, losing over half
their strength.
Out west, Sherman’s Army faced equally stubborn Confederates
in a battle for Atlanta. In the Shenandoah valley, another Confederate
Army was marching towards Washington. In total, Union Army casualties
in the summer of 1864 surpassed 100,000.
The press and public were horrified. President Lincoln was
criticized for his conduct of the war, and his insistence that slavery,
and the confederacy, be destroyed before the war could end. With the
Presidential election just four months away, the prospects for
President Lincoln, and the United States, appeared bleak.
Lincoln’s opponent in the election was George McClellan. A
former Union Army General who was responsible for some of the bungled
campaigns of the previous years. He promised an immediate end to the
war, and negotiations with the Confederacy. Had he won, the United
States would not exist.
On August 23rd, President Lincoln wrote, “it seems exceedingly
probable that this Administration will not be re-elected. Then it will
be my duty to so cooperate with the President-elect as to save the
Union between the election and the inauguration; as he will have
secured his election on such grounds that he cannot possibly save it
afterwards."
Then on September 3rd, Sherman captured Atlanta. Two weeks later a
Union Army took the offensive in the Shenandoah valley. After three
victories, the Shenandoah valley, breadbasket of the Confederacy, was
in Union hands.
Although the Army of the Potomac did not win any decisive victories
in the summer of 1864, their sacrifice had finally besieged Lee’s
Army. The most infamous Confederate army was entrenched at Petersburg,
unable to move. The South now had no chance to defeat the Union in the
field, and change the course of the election.
After two months of campaigning, what had been a futile war with no
end in sight suddenly appeared to be all but over. The reversal of
fortunes was astounding. By October of 1864, it was clear that the
Union would win the Civil War. That November, the American people voted
to re-elect President Lincoln,and pursue the war to it's conclusion.
Grateful for the victories that had saved the United States, Abraham
Lincoln declared the last Thursday in November to be a national day of
Thanksgiving.
Our country is being brought to the brink of another abyss by our
cynical, corrupt leaders. Americans have survived tough times before,
and we will suffer through the events of the near future. When we do
let us give thanks.
... | | |
| A House Divided...
© A. Scott Piraino
Exit polls show that “moral values“ won the election for Bush. The
Republicans succeeded in distracting us from real, pressing issues, and
making November 2nd a referendum on the new “culture war“. Basically,
the American people re-elected George W. Bush because he is a
conservative.
But he‘s certainly not a fiscal conservative, his administration has ran
record trade and budget deficits. Nor is he politically conservative,
enforcing a literal interpretation of the Constitution, (the Patriot
Act is proof of that). No, George Bush has cast himself as a moral
conservative, standing against liberals who seek to change our culture
and way of life.
“Liberal“ literally means generous, or giving. Democrats believed that
redistribution of wealth was right and necessary, and raised taxes,
(predominantly on the wealthy), to pay for these social programs. They
supported the Unions that forced capitalists to equitably share profits
with workers.
Franklin D. Roosevelt created Social Security, and Lyndon B. Johnson
gave us Medicare, Welfare, and the Civil Rights Amendment.
Unfortunately, the days when Democrats thought big, and proposed
legislation that benefited the working class are gone. The American
people may still be liberal at heart, but they do not subscribe to the
fringe issues that are passed off as Democratic values today.
This new liberalism goes by many names; multiculturalism, diversity,
but it is most aptly described as being “politically-correct“. This
movement is not one single issue, rather it is a way of thinking that
seeks to force a left-wing ideology onto the majority. Anyone who
disagrees with this ideology or dares to speak out can simply be
branded as right-wing, extremist, or a bigot.
Our police officers are accused of racism when they “profile“ groups of
blacks. Even though everyone knows black males commit the majority of
violent crimes in this country, and the statistics prove it. This fact
just isn’t discussed, because it’s not politically correct.
Most Americans oppose illegal immigration, and they resent immigrants
for committing crimes, drawing welfare, using public funds for
education and health care, and competing with citizens for jobs. But
again, no one speaks out against illegal immigration because
Republicans want cheap labor, and Democrats want votes. There are an
estimated eight to twelve million people living in the United States
illegally, yet the issue is simply not up for public debate.
In the recent election, the moral issue that was used to split the
electorate was gay marriage. Middle America does not approve of gay
marriage, but they are more offended by the gay community‘s whining
about being oppressed when they don‘t get it. Again, anyone who
criticizes the gay community’s endless lawsuits and courtroom theater
is simply politically incorrect.
Right wing pundits like Rush Limbaugh, Bill O‘Reilly, and Ann Coulter
have made careers out of lambasting the excesses of the American left.
These new pundits are not content to rail about old school conservative
issues like gun control or abortion. In their view every perceived
problem; from big government, rampant crime, ivory tower professors,
civil-rights extremists, violence on television, and even our
self-centered, hip hop culture is caused by…liberals, (who are of course
Democrats).
These right wing pundits are very popular on television, radio, and the
internet simply because many people share their views. The fact is, the
majority of Americans distain these false liberals and their left-wing
causes. And they disagreed with this politically correct agenda
strongly enough to re-elect George Bush on November 2nd.
Unfortunately, Middle America has made a terrible mistake, because George Bush is not a conservative, he is a thief and a liar.
Now the President is free to carry out his real agenda, and with Republican majorities in both houses
of Congress, he just might pull it off. Already the Bush administration is proposing the privatization of
Social security, more energy de-regulation, the rollback of
conservation laws, and of course more tax cuts.
Whether you call it the social safety net or the welfare state, the
Republicans are preparing to dismantle it.
The next Bush administration is not going to prevent gay
marriage, curb illegal immigration, censor the decadent media, or
rationalize the racial profiling of black Americans. But they are going
to destroy the core Democratic ideal of redistribution of wealth for
the benefit of the majority. Seriously, with our budget deficits and
these crooks in office, cuts in Social Security, Medicare, and other
basic subsidies to middle class Americans are on the table.
The real irony, the real tragedy of this election is that Middle
America, represented by the “Red States“ that voted for George bush,
has suffered the worst from Republican politics. Their blue collar jobs
have been shipped overseas, (Ohio is in the middle of the rust belt
after all), and agri-business has destroyed the small farmers. Since
they are poorer, they are more dependent on the very Federal subsidies
that Bush Inc. intends to cut.
While the “Blue States” that voted Democratic have benefited from
Republican policies. Their incomes have climbed above the national
average, they are better educated, and they have lower unemployment
rates than Middle America. They are also wealthier, and would have paid
higher taxes in a Kerry administration to support programs that
benefited their poorer countrymen.
The culture war has turned American politics upside down. Those who
benefit from the Republican agenda vote Democrat, those who lose vote
Republican. In addition, the Bush administration has not been forced to
answer for their real performance during the last four years.
The United States now runs trade and budget deficits of over $400
billion a year each. There are one million fewer jobs in the US today
than when Bush took office in 2000, and per capita incomes have
declined. President Bush failed to capture Osama bin Laden or destroy
al-Qaeda, yet one third of our army is fighting in Iraq because the
President lied about WMDs to put them there.
And they got away with it by hyping the excesses of a few too-far-left
liberals, and using the September 11th attacks to justify the War in
Iraq. Simply put; Middle America was manipulated by an alliance
of right-wing conservatives and cynical Republicans. They‘ve been
duped, and now they will be discarded.
…
| | |
| The End is Near
A. Scott Piraino
I am embarrassed to be an American today,
and more than that, I really fear for our future. The majority of
Americans have voted to re-elect George W. Bush, knowing what this
president and his administration stand for. Disregarding what they have
said, their actions over the last four years make clear what we can expect from the next Bush administration.
George
Bush ran on a platform of conservative “values” in the 2000 campaign,
but his real agenda was tax cuts for the wealthy. He did not
disappoint. The President proposed a 1.3 trillion dollar tax cut
package, using the same tired, Republican/Reaganomic argument: Simply
put, tax cuts would stimulate a recovery from the recession, and create
jobs.
Inexplicably, there are one million fewer jobs today than
when Bush took office, despite nearly two trillion dollars in tax cuts.
It was no surprise that massive tax cuts without reductions in
federal spending would create huge deficits. President Bush inherited a
government surplus in 2001, on his watch our trade and budget deficits
have climbed to over $400 billion a year each.
After
passing his tax cuts, the President proposed a new “energy policy”.
Enron CEO Kenneth Lay was the number one contributor to the Presidents
first campaign, and he got what he paid for. President Bush signed an
executive order that allowed Enron and other energy trading companies
to legally extort electricity. The energy crisis that bankrupted California was a direct result of outrageous price gouging by
Enron and other energy brokers.
After
the energy debacle and the collapse of Enron, the Bush administration
faced their first foreign crisis. Most Americans don't remember the
incident because our enemy was
not Afghanistan or Iraq, but China. On April 1st 2001, a Chinese
fighter aircraft collided with a US surveillance plane flying in
international airspace. The US plane was forced to make an
emergency landing in China, and the aircrew was held captive by the
Chinese armed forces for eleven days.
Our government met all of China’s
demands for the release of our airmen, and issued three
apologies to the Chinese. All the while, the Bush administration
assured us that there would be no change in US/China relations. It
may seem strange that the US would appease China while our yearly trade
deficits with that country have skyrocketed to nearly $150 billion. The truth is, most Fortune 500 companies now manufacture in
China, and earn huge profits from our trade
deficits by importing their products into
the US.
President Bush cut taxes for the rich, brought back deficit spending, enacted
a corrupt energy policy, and kowtowed to China, all before
September 11th 2001.
After that horrible day, President
Bush had a new mandate; win the War on Terror. The country rallied
behind him, and their was a global consensus that the perpetrators of
those heinous attacks must be brought to justice. But instead of
fighting that war, he chose to invade Iraq.
The problem of
course is that there was no reason for the United States to invade. The
Bush administration manufactured all the evidence that Iraq was
developing Weapons of Mass Destruction, and that Iraq was involved in
the 9/11 attacks. The President’s claim that Iraq had attempted to
purchase uranium in Niger, the alleged meeting between the 9/11
hijackers and Iraqi agents, the mobile chemical weapons factories,
these were not mistakes, they were all lies.
By the
summer of 2002 US troops were deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq, our
country was mired in recession, and defense spending was at an all time
high. While Americans were being told that sacrifices had to be made,
the Bush administration passed another 600 billion dollar tax cut package for the rich. They even had the nerve to call it “Patriotic Tax Relief“.
President
Bush has not captured Osama bin Laden, or destroyed al-Qaeda. Instead
his administration embroiled our Armed Forces in a futile guerrilla war
in Iraq. So far that war has claimed the lives of over 1000 American
servicemen, and seriously wounded another 6000.
Through it
all, the President has made his allegiance very clear. He is not going
to admit that he lied to invade Iraq, much less take responsibility for
the disaster the war has become. The majority of Americans will pay for
the War(s) on Terror, and finance our soaring deficits, while our
wealthiest citizens pay a smaller share of the nation‘s tax burden.
Since this is what George W. Bush stands for, his re-election is a disaster for the United states.
So whose fault is it?
We
can’t blame the Media. Although Wolf Blitzer did not come right out and
call George Bush a scumbag, the press by and large reported the
truth. The facts are all there: The Bush administration’s tax
cuts are public knowledge, our deficits are public knowledge, Osama bin
Laden is still at large, and there are still no WMDs in Iraq.
We
can't blame John Kerry, although he is a wishy-washy liberal, and a
“nice” man. His campaign refused to attack George Bush over Iraq, tax
cuts for the rich, and energy fraud. But we all knew these things
anyway, thanks to the press.
Finally, we can’t blame the
President. He and his neo-conservative lackeys are lying weasels and
they make no bones about it. They haven’t been devious or particularly
clever, they just lie, and then get on with their agenda.
No,
we are responsible. The American people have given the most despicable
President in US history another four years in office. We have no excuse
for it, and we deserve what we are going to get.
…
| | |
| Patriot Games
© A. Scott Piraino
The Republican National Convention has served its purpose. George W.
Bush is riding high and on message: The war on terror is the source of
our troubles, and only he can win the war.
The fact is, the War on
Terror is far from won. Al-Qeada is still dangerous, and Osama bin
Laden is still at large. A recent study even concluded that al-Qaeda
and other terrorist cells have grown in number since the 9/11 attacks
and the invasion of Iraq.
Osama bin Laden is still at large because the Bush administration’s
half-assed invasion of Afghanistan failed to capture him and thousands
of other al-Qaeda operatives. There were more policemen in New York
guarding the Republicans at their convention than there are troops in
Afghanistan searching for al-Qaeda. The Bush administration failed to
defeat al-Qaeda in Afghanistan because they were determined to invade
Iraq.
We are not winning the War on Terror, but that does not matter. What
matters is that the Bush administration has convinced Americans that
the war in Iraq is the War on Terror. And they have accomplished this
by lying.
Bush’s speech about Iraqi agents purchasing uranium in Niger was a lie.
The President’s claims that we had evidence Iraq was developing
chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons was a lie. The Bush
administration’s claims that Saddam’s regime was involved with al-Qaeda
and the 9/11 attacks was also a lie.
The 9/11 attacks are the most serious failure of US national defense
since Pearl Harbor, yet our military response to al-Qaeda has been
tepid. There are no WMDs in Iraq, but there is plenty of evidence that
our enemies are developing, and even exporting ,nuclear weapons
technology. However, the evidence points to North Korea, Iran, and our
reluctant ally Pakistan, not Iraq.
The truth is the national unity and international solidarity we earned
after the September 11th attacks has been squandered by the invasion of
Iraq. One third of the US army is entrenched in Iraq, and will be
pinned down fighting a growing insurgency for the foreseeable future.
And the unrest and violence has increased since the handover of
sovereignty to an interim Iraqi government in June.
148 US troops have been killed since the handover on June 28th,
including 65 deaths and more than 1,000 wounded during the fighting in
August. The Pentagon reported 87 attacks per day on U.S. forces in
August—the worst monthly average of the war. In total, over 1000 U.S.
military personnel have been killed in Iraq, another 7000 have been
wounded, and nearly 13,000 Iraqis have died in the war.
The news only gets worse.
In in the past week over 200 Iraqis have been killed, and several
hundred more have been wounded. Recent attacks included a massive
mortar barrage targeting US Headquarters in Baghdad that killed sixty.
Scores of Iraqi civilians were killed in the crossfire of a firefight
between US forces and insurgents. Air strikes in Fallujah killed
twenty. And the latest report is a car bomb has killed 47 Iraqis and
wounded 114 at a Baghdad police station.
President Bush and his cabal of advisors have no one but themselves to
blame for losing control over the war, and public perceptions of the
war. But placing the blame on themselves, (where it belongs), would
mean taking responsibility for the lies they told to garner support for
the invasion of Iraq. Instead the Bush administration has adopted a new
strategy: Minimize the negative news coverage from the war, at least
until after the November elections.
To that end, whole cities and regions of Iraq have been declared
“insurgent enclaves”. Fallujah, Ramadi, Samarra, and several other
areas of Iraq are now off limits to US troops. In effect these areas
have been ceded to the insurgents.
These safe havens have become staging areas where the insurgents can
operate with impunity, and plan more coordinated attacks. US troops are
now hunkered down and fighting off increasingly tenacious guerrillas,
without being allowed to deliver a killing blow. During the heavy
fighting in August, US forces defeated the Mahdi Army, but the fighting
ended in negotiations that allowed the insurgents to retreat, with
their weapons.
We are not winning the War in Iraq, but that doesn’t matter. What
matters is that the Bush administration has convinced us we have to
keep fighting. Using simpleton slogans like “if we don’t fight them
there we’ll have to fight them here”, the White House has convinced us
that the war in Iraq is necessary.
The truth is we are fighting an enemy that would not exist, if we had
not invaded Iraq. The Mahdi Army is our creation, as are the insurgent
groups that have flocked to Iraq to battle the Americans. We are creating terrorists, not defeating them.
The people of Iraq are not better off than they were four years ago,
and neither are we. There are one million fewer jobs in the US than
there were when George Bush took office, and the average family has
lost over 1000 dollars in annual income. Our budget and trade deficits
have climbed to record highs, surpassing 400 billion dollars a year,
each.
The budget surpluses inherited by George Bush have been squandered, but
that doesn’t matter. Because the Bush administration has convinced us
that the deficits, and the recession, are caused by the war on terror.
Our wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have cost nearly $200 billion since
the 9/11 attacks, yet the Bush administration has run up over one
trillion dollars in debt.
The truth is, our budget deficits are the result of George Bush’s huge
tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. His administration passed a tax
cut bill before the 9/11 attacks, then used the war on terror as an
excuse to pass another “tax relief” package. As for the stubborn
recession, technically, the recession of 2001 ended over two years ago.
It is difficult for the average American to believe that because they
have not seen any profits from the economy’s recovery. Since the
recession officially ended in late 2001, 47 percent of the real
national income growth has gone to corporate profits, and only 15
percent to wages and salaries. This is the first economic recovery
since WW II where corporate profits gained at the expense of worker’s
pay and benefits.
And let’s not forget the real cause of the recession. It was not the
September 11th attacks, but the collapse of companies like Enron that
precipitated a stock market meltdown. Enron's CEO was the number one
contributor to the Bush campaign, yet the company managed to go
bankrupt after legalizing the extortion of electricity, and bankrupting
the State
of California.
Given the facts, you’d think that anyone could defeat George Bush in
November. But The collapse of Enron, the energy debacle in California,
tax cuts for the rich, our soaring deficits, nuclear proliferation,
none of these issues matter today. The War(s) on Terror are the issues
in this election, and Americans are convinced that only George Bush can
win those wars.
And that’s just not true. Whoever wins the Presidency in 2004
had better be ready to face the music, and convince the American People
to do the same. George W.Bush is not that man, and our country cannot survive four more years of his patriot
games.
…
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